Par 5 strategy: forget your favourite yardage and lay up closer

You’ve found the fairway on a par 5 you can’t reach in two. Plenty of club golfers now reach for a 7-iron, because it leaves “a nice full wedge in”. For most players, the numbers say that costs shots.

If you play par 5s as three-shot holes, as most club golfers do, the rule is this: unless trouble says otherwise, get as close to the green as your reliable clubs allow.

From 30 yards versus 80 yards

Mark Broadie’s strokes-gained research, published in Every Shot Counts, gives the average number of shots needed to hole out from different distances. As summarised by The DIY Golfer, a golfer who typically shoots in the 90s needs about 2.9 shots from 30 yards in the fairway and 3.4 from 80 yards. For a golfer in the 100s, it’s roughly 3.1 against 3.7. Even from the rough, the 90s golfer averages about 3.1 from 30 yards, better than from 80 yards in the short grass.

Arccos’s shot-tracking data, covering more than 100 million shots, points the same way. From 60–80 yards, players with handicaps above 20 finished an average of about 62 feet from the hole. From 100–120 yards, that grew to about 83 feet. Every handicap band got closer to the hole from the shorter distance.

Shot Scope data, reported by Plugged In Golf, found that players going for par 5s in two averaged about 4.2 strokes against 4.8 for those laying up. Treat that one carefully: players who go for it are often already closer, so it isn’t a clean comparison.

Why the full-wedge idea sticks around

On tour, a full wedge produces lots of spin and a predictable flight, so laying up to a number can make sense for the best players. For club golfers, the 30–60 yard pitch can feel awkward: Broadie’s paper on amateur performance found that distance errors on short-game shots are about three times larger than direction errors. Practise that shot rather than laying up away from it.

The decision rule: three questions for the second shot

Stand behind the ball and work through these in order.

1. Can I reach the green, and where does my miss go? If your longest reliable club gets you there and the usual miss (short, or your common curve) finds grass rather than water or out of bounds, go for it. If the miss brings a penalty into play, move to question 2.

2. What trouble can my longest club reach? Look for water, out of bounds and fairway bunkers within your realistic distance plus your typical miss. If the longest club brings any of these into play, choose the club that finishes short of the trouble, or the one that carries comfortably past it.

3. If nothing is in the way, how close can I get? Take the longest club you strike solidly most of the time and aim at the widest part of the fairway near the green. Don’t stop at a “favourite” yardage on purpose.

A realistic example: a 490-yard par 5, and a decent drive leaves 270 yards. A 3-wood that reliably goes 200 leaves about 70 yards. A 7-iron leaves around 120. If a stream crosses the fairway 90 yards from the green, the 3-wood brings it into play and the 7-iron is the smart choice. If the fairway is open, the 3-wood (or a hybrid of similar length) is usually the better percentage play.

When to lay up further back

Your “long club” is the one you hit well. If your 3-wood off the fairway is often thinned or sliced, its average distance flatters it. A hybrid you trust that goes 175 may beat a 3-wood that averages 195 but finds trouble one time in three.

Your own short game counts. The averages favour closer, but if you have tracked your own pitching and you are clearly better from 90 yards than 40, play to your strength while you work on the shorter shot.

The green matters. A short pitch over a deep front bunker to a tight pin is harder than the averages suggest. If laying up closer leaves that, the side of the fairway with a clear run-in may be worth a few extra yards.

Lay-up choices from 20+ to single figures

• 20+ handicap: the priority is avoiding a big number. Use question 2 strictly and take the club you hit solidly, even if that’s a mid-iron twice. A third shot from inside 100 yards is still a good result.
• 10–19 handicap: you’ll often be choosing between a fairway wood and an iron. If the trouble is out of range, take the longer option and practise your 30–60 yard pitch.
• Single figures: more par 5s become two-shot holes. Pick where the miss goes before you pick the club, and accept a chip from the side rather than a shot from a greenside bunker.

Keep your own lay-up numbers

On every par 5, before your second shot, ask the three questions and note the club you chose. Then jot down how far your third shot was from the green and how many shots it took to finish. After three or four rounds you’ll know which lay-up distances work for your game. Spend ten minutes of your next practice session on 30–60 yard pitches.

Sources

• The DIY Golfer: Partial or full wedge? You should rethink your strategy (data from Every Shot Counts)
• Arccos: Course Management 101: What layup yardage is your sweet spot?
• Plugged In Golf: Should you ever lay up? (Shot Scope data)
• Mark Broadie, Columbia University: Assessing golfer performance using Golfmetrics
• Columbia Business School: Every Shot Counts, by Mark Broadie