Course management
Breaking 90 or 100: give every hole a personal par
Club golfers rarely lose to a lack of birdies – they lose to double bogeys. Writing a personal par for each hole on your card turns a scoring target into a plan for every tee shot.
A 20-handicapper makes 6.66 double bogeys per round and 0.36 birdies, according to Shot Scope’s shot-tracking data. A 10-handicapper makes 2.88 doubles and 0.72 birdies. Double bogeys account for nearly four shots of the difference between those two players. Birdies account for less than half a shot.
If you’re trying to break 100 or 90, the shots to save are on the holes that get away from you. The scorecard in your pocket can help, with your own par written next to the official one.
This is for golfers who usually shoot between the high 80s and about 105 and chase a number without a plan for reaching it. Lower handicaps can use the same method for breaking 80, with tighter targets.
The arithmetic of a target score
On a par-72 course, 90 is a bogey on every hole. Shot Scope’s per-hole averages, published by MyGolfSpy, show where typical club golfers sit. A 15-handicapper averages 3.9 on par 3s, 5.1 on par 4s and 6.0 on par 5s. A 20-handicapper averages 4.0, 5.4 and 6.3. On a course with four par 3s, ten par 4s and four par 5s, that works out at roughly 91 for the 15-handicapper and 95 for the 20-handicapper.
For the 15-handicapper, turning two or three double bogeys into bogeys is enough to break 90, with no extra birdies required.
How to set your personal par
The stroke index printed on the card ranks the holes. Under the World Handicap System it is based on each hole’s difficulty relative to par, then adjusted so that the low numbers are spread across both nines for match play. That makes it a reasonable first guide to which holes need the most care.
Write a personal par in the margin before you tee off:
- To break 100: par plus two on stroke index 1 to 9, par plus one on the rest. That adds up to 99.
- To break 90: par plus one on every hole except stroke index 18, where your target is par. That adds up to 89.
- To break 80: par plus one on stroke index 1 to 7, par on the rest. That adds up to 79.
If you play off 18, your net par is already a bogey on every hole, so the break-90 card is one shot better than the net par your handicap sets. The difference is that you write it down and plan each hole around it.
Plan backwards from the green
On a long par 4 with a personal par of 5, you no longer need to reach the green in two. You need to be on in three and take two putts.
According to Arccos data, a 20-handicapper has about a 50% chance of hitting the green from 92 yards; a 15-handicapper has the same chance from 110 yards. Trying to reach a 410-yard par 4 in two often means a long second shot that misses the green and brings bunkers and water into play.
Take that 410-yard hole, stroke index 3, with water short and right of the green. A golfer trying to break 90 has a personal par of 5. A 180-yard hybrid off the tee and a 130-yard iron to the left side of the fairway leaves about 100 yards, away from the water. A wedge to the middle of the green and two putts make 5.
Never worse than personal par plus one
Mark Broadie, the Columbia professor behind strokes gained, names penalty strokes and failed recovery shots as the two main causes of blow-up holes, Golf Digest reported. England Golf’s advice, based on Shot Scope data, makes the same point: don’t play a shot that is likely to leave you worse off, and decide where you want your next shot to come from.
So add one rule to your personal par: no score worse than personal par plus one on any hole. When you’re in trees, in a fairway bunker or already behind your target for the hole, choose the shot whose worst outcome is personal par plus one, not the one that might save personal par. Usually that means a short club back to the fairway. Our recovery-shot rule covers that decision in more detail.
When the card’s order doesn’t fit you
- Your hardest holes may not match the card. The match-play adjustments mean the card’s order isn’t a pure difficulty ranking, and your hardest holes depend on your game. If a short par 4 with water down the left costs you more than the hole the card rates stroke index 4, swap their targets. Keep the total the same.
- Long hitters with a weak short game. Distance gets you within wedge range of par 5s in two, but a poor wedge game makes being on in three unreliable. Practise 50–100-yard shots before you raise your targets.
- Shorter hitters. If you can’t reach a long par 4 in three with your reliable clubs, give that hole par plus two and take a shot back on a short par 3.
- Conditions and tees. In wind or rain, or from longer tees than usual, add a shot or two to the hardest holes before you start, not halfway round.
Targets for 100, 90 and 80
Aiming to break 100. Your main job is keeping the ball in play and avoiding penalty strokes. Aim at the middle of every green, even from short range. On the nine hardest holes, double bogey is the target.
Aiming to break 90. Most of your holes are bogey holes. Look for one or two short par 4s or par 3s where par is realistic, and play everything else for a safe bogey. Our fat-side rule keeps the misses on those holes simple.
Aiming to break 80. Par is now the target on most holes, so your tee shots and approaches have to be more aggressive. Avoiding doubles still matters: Shot Scope puts a 5-handicapper at 1.44 doubles per round, so one fewer is worth the same as an extra birdie.
Counting the holes that got away
Before the first tee, write a personal par beside every hole and add them up to check they match your target. On each tee, say the number and the shots that get you there. After the round, count only the holes where you finished two or more over personal par. Every one you remove from that list next time is a shot off your score.
Sources
- Fairways Magazine / Shot Scope: Is chasing birdies the quickest path to lower scores?
- MyGolfSpy: What you should expect to shoot on each hole based on your handicap
- USGA: World Handicap System – stroke index allocation
- Arccos: From this distance you have a 50% chance of hitting the green
- Golf Digest, via Australian Golf Digest: Use this little golf GPS hack to keep big numbers off your scorecard
- England Golf: Golf tips – avoiding compounding errors
- MyGolfSpy: Why is breaking 80 so much harder than breaking 90? (Shot Scope data)
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